If we ignore the back and forth of reasons why Russia has gripes with Georgia, and Georgia has gripes with Russia, Russia has invaded Georgia for no reason other than to assert its power, and further objectives in its near abroad. Things like this aren’t supposed to happen in our post realist world. None of the institutionalists precious institutions stopped the tanks rolling across the border. The consequences in a globalized economy of invading your neighbor did not deter the Russian government. Unless cell phone cameras count as NGOs, they have had little to no presence or impact. I’m not convinced that anything short of NATO hardware in Georgia is going to roll back the Russian advance to anything that doesn’t amount to annexation.
What does this mean for the rest of the world? There are several possible trends which could be set in motion by these events. First off there is Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. If it turns out that Russia is more willing to assert its self globally, a key reason for this is its new found energy wealth. This allows the government to appease citizens at home, and pay for adventures abroad. Will Europeans be able to live with themselves if they know that their money is going to subsidize conflict, instability, or insecurity on their own continent? Perhaps the oil rich gulf theocracies are too far removed for the consequences of our energy dependence to become apparent. Russia is closer in both geography and history. If energy issues are able to take on a greater security dimension, even greater progress could be forthcoming.
A second potential trend could tilt towards Russia or Europe. Russia is clearly asserting its desire to maintain influence over its former possessions. The question then becomes what impact this move will have on former soviet republics which border Russia. Will the threat of massive intervention be enough to turn them at least away from the West, if not towards Russia, or will it frighten them into pushing harder and faster in their efforts to enter the Western orbit? The decisions these nations make will be based on their assessment of the relative power of the two orbits when it comes to their country. Whoever can offer them the least bad situation will be the direction in which they tilt. Between the might of the Russian military, and the potential for cheap Russian energy, I would not put too much faith on what the West has to offer, especially if we are unable to intervene on Georgia’s behalf.
The third trend is certainly not along the realist vein, but hopefully a more belligerent Russia will encourage greater cooperation amongst NATO, the EU, and other democracies around the world. The sooner we realize that we are better off cooperating and accomplishing our goals in a unified manner, the better off we, and the rest of the world will be. If our policies and resources are working to compliment each other, rather than duplicating effort or working at cross purposes the impact of our positions and strategies will be greatly enhanced. While interactions inside a NATO/EU/Democracy block may be far from classic realism, the interaction between this block, and those operating outside it is likely to be realist in character. Until these nations come to realize the benefits of cooperation this division will remain and realist politics will continue to dominate the interactions between the democratic block, and the rest of the world.
Strangely, despite the potential for an open war involving one of the world’s biggest energy exporters, oil is down and markets are up. Maybe I shouldn’t be concerned.
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Russia has only invaded Georgia if one considers South Ossetia a legitimate part of of that nation. The South Ossetians have twice voted overwhelmingly to the contrary, in 1993 and 2006. Prior to 1993 the South Ossetians quite clearly indicated that, as the Soviet Union was dissolving, they wished to be independent of Georgia. When Ossetia was annexed by the Russian Empire in 1801 it was considered an autonomous province, a status it held until Stalin broke it into North and South Ossetia and made South Ossetia part of the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. The vast majority of South Ossetians have indicated that they wished to be reunified with North Ossetia making it a part of Russia once again. To this effect Russia issued Russian Passports to those South Ossetians that wanted them in exchange for their Soviet ones effectively making them citizens of Russia. From my reading, Georgia didn't seem too interested in granting citizenship to the people living there so what their status would be if they capitulated to Georgia would be interesting to see. Unfortunately media outlets, especially those in North America, are vastly under simplifying a very complex situation in an equally complex part of the world and are content to make it look like that a Pro-West democracy is under siege by a belligerent Russia. I have seen many commentors on various sites ranting and raving that Russia is widening the conflict by moving into the surrounding Georgian area (ie. Reports earier today that Gori had been seized by Russian forces). I believe this stems from an ignorance of modern artillery ranges as well as not understanding or not wanting to understand that Russia has to over run these sites in order to stop the shelling. A Georgian official in te area himself conceded that the Russians never entered Gori and that Georgian forces fell back to Tbilisi with out making contact. What it looks like is that Saakashvili believed the threat of Western intervention would stop Russia from crossing the border to protect their citizens if he tried to take South Ossetia by forced, Russia called their bluff and now Mr. Saakashvili is screaming about “Russian aggression” despite having launched his adventure by surprise during the Openinf Ceremonies of the Olympics. Now, of course, if Russia makes a play for Tbilisi then all this goes out the window and things get real scary but I think Putin and Medvedev have a grasp of how far they can push.
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