So we are a week into Russia’s invasion of Georgia and there are few signs of any real progress. Russian military vehicles and troops continue to occupy Gori as well as moving further inland, and much as I had predicted, Medvedev is saying that South Ossetia and Abkhazia, were unlikely to ever be parts of Georgia again. That does not seem to bode well for a quick and peaceful settlement.
It’s good to see that the old cold war politics are back again with Russia threatening strikes against Poland if it in fact does take US missile defense sites. While the announcement of this deal looks like pretty bad timing, I really wonder how much Russian action in Georgia encouraged Poland’s government to sign the deal. I’m sure they figure if there is pricy US technology in their country the US will send troops in a hurry if the Russian’s cross their borders.
Even more frightening is Paul Krugman’s comparison of this situation to the days leading up to World War One. We are once again living in an era of unparalleled globalization, and we may once again be on the brink of global conflict. Of all people, I would have figured that the Russians would have learned that war is a bad option, but in the end, we all seem to forget the past too quickly...or not quickly enough.
So the situation now leaves us with some important questions. To steal again from Krugman, what impact will this have on issues like China/Taiwan? Are regional powers now free to exert their influence free of American influence or is this a special case? Does this become even more likely in the event of a economic troubles in the regional power when the trade or financial consequences of war may not be so severe? Is Russia serious about taking military action against its other neighbours like Poland? Russia has been willing to use energy “diplomacy” to get concessions from its former empire, come this winter in Europe will Russia be more inclined to do the same to them?
It looks increasingly like we are leaving the global villiage if it ever existed, and heading back to a world of us vs. them. What’s scary this time around is that we owe them a lot of money, and they have all the oil. If moderating consumer gluttony, and energy independence were important issues before, they are even more pressing in the weeks ahead.
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Well the media affair with the well spoken president seems to be over and more news outlets are reporting on this conflict with a bit more open mindedness regarding the nature of the Caucasus and its troubled past. Though President Bush is a firm as ever that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia. If Dr. Rice is claiming it's not 1968 then its certainly not 1924; Georgia and her sponsors don't get to arbitrarily decide to enforce borders drawn up for administrative reasons during the formation of the USSR Both of these areas declared independence at the same time as Georgia back in 1992 so I'm not sure what claim any western power can make that will convince Russia otherwise especially after rapid western recognition of Kosovo. Putin believed firmly in the territorial integrity of Serbia but was rebuked by the international community and has seemingly evolved his position based on this new precedent. Putin has taken the cards dealt and is playing quite well in a region important to him.
Not to sound flippant but I think part of the problem stems from the current American Administrations failure to understand many of the nuances required by geopolitics. A prime example is their selling weapons to the Georgian government. Russia told them several times over that this was going to destabilize the region. When Israel and the US continued weapon sales, Syria and Iran suddenly found themselves with access to some nice Russian hardware. Israel made the connection between their sale of weapons to Georgia and Russia's sale of weapons certain elements in the Middle East and stopped the US didn't. Hopefully the non-conservative world view is defeated in November and common sense nuance are allowed to return to the geopolitical arena. From some of McCain's comments this week his watch has stopped at 1953 and there's no restarting it.
“Is Russia serious about taking military action against it's other neighbours like Poland?”
I don't think so, Putin and Medvedev seem to understand that resorting to force as your first option leads to trouble. Let's not forget that Russia went to the UN on Aug. 6 to secure a resolution to stop this conflict before it started but were blocked by the USA and the UK. They apparently took umbrage to the part prohibiting the use of force by both sides. I imagine Putin is enjoying seeing his western counterparts speaking firmly to him on the TV knowing full well there isn't much they can do to force him out. Now the interceptor missiles in Poland, if they are installed I think these are a real issue for Russia whether they're pointed at them or not. Will there be strikes to take them out though? I don't think so. I think Putin understands there is a difference between Georgia and Poland which is a full member of NATO and is voluntarily hosting the missile bases. I imagine Russia's response will be to complete the sale of the S-300 air defence system to Iran dramatically increasing the cost of any attempted strike on them as the Middle East is of much greater importance to the US than Eastern Europe and certainly the Caucasus.
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