The Stupidity of Realpolitik

The occupation of Georgia continues with no end in sight despite ongoing claims by the Russians that they are withdrawing. I don’t see why we are anymore inclined to believe them this week since this is pretty much what they have been saying since the invasion started.

While I think that Georgia is less in the wrong in this situation than Russia, we are getting to the point of ridiculousness here. The BBC is telling me that “[Russian] prosecutors have opened a case against Georgia for genocide, while Tbilisi has already filed charges of ethnic cleansing against Moscow.” Ok, lest hold on for a second here. Maybe Georgia wanted to commit a genocide in South Ossetia, but they didn’t even have 24 hours there before they got turned back by the oncoming Russian surge. By the Russian’s own admission, only 133 civilians were killed. FAR fewer I would note than the Russian’s first overly propagandistic estimate of 1,600+ HOW DO YOU HAVE A GENOCIDE WITH ONLY 133 CASUALTIES?! Russia lost 64 soldiers, MAYBE GEORGIA IS COMMITING GENOCIDE AGAINST RUSSIA! But hold on a second, Georgia has lost 160 soldiers so I guess Russia is committing genocide against Georgia. What’s even worse is that while we are throwing around the world genocide for ONE HUNDERD people, there has been violence THREE FUCKING ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE LARGER in Sudan which almost no one is willing to call a genocide. THERE IS A DOUBLE STANDARD FOR YOU.
Even if we leave all the genocide talk, and who started what when, and what outside powers are responsible we are still left with one inescapable conclusion: everyone is worse off. I doubt if Georgia could have ever collected enough tax revenue from South Ossetia to pay for their war. Russia seems to come out a winner, but I’m willing to be the final cost in terms of military losses (apparently light), economic consequences in the form of lost investment, sanctions, or a slowing of their integration in the world economy, or spending on a new arms race will make the math look pretty bad from the Russian side too.

There have been a lot of fuck ups all around in this situation and if we could put petty nationalism behind us, we would all be a lot richer and happier. But realism’s a bitch and seemingly at least two of the world’s most important leaders, plus one more who is important now, still believe in it.

If you are looking for a more informed, and lighthearted analysis of the conflict, I suggest reading The War Nerd’s commentary.