WMD Terrorism Musings

I got to thinking on the weekend about terrorist attacks using a WMD. I occasionally ponder what would happen if America were to be attacked in such a manner. My train of thought generally doesn’t end well for the world’s Muslim population or for any Westerner who isn’t a fan of crusades. But it occurred to me recently, that the first use of a WMD by terrorists may not in fact occur in America, or even Europe.

I came to this thinking for a number of reasons. First, getting a weapon to America is likely more difficult than getting it anywhere else in the world. The weapon must at the very least pass through a port in the country of origin, then an American, or at least North American port, and subsequently be moved undetected to the target location. That presents many opportunities for discovery. In addition, all the travel takes time, which adds to the possibility that the loss of material may be discovered and actions taken to recover it. This makes getting a WMD to America much more difficult than to a target in Eurasia.

Europe would likely be the target of greatest opportunity was the attack not destined for America. Still, the EU border represents some degree of an obstacle, and getting it to the UK (which in my mind is likely to be the preferred target) would be even more difficult. This leaves Russia and China as potential targets for domestic WMD terrorism. My thoughts turn to Russia for a number of reasons.

First, Russia has many more nuclear weapons than China, and seemingly less control over its military, making the potential for sale to terrorists more likely. Second, Russia has a much more restive population if my analysis of the situation counts for anything. This trend is likely to continue as the white Russian population declines and Islam gain more prominence in the country. If the Russian economy continues to experience turbulence, there may be more aggrieved people willing to resort to terrorism, and more Russian military officers willing to conduct shady deals in order to enrich themselves.

These domestic problems, coupled with the difficulties of shipping WMD material outside the borders where it was procured lead me to believe that the world’s first act of WMD terrorism may be more likely to occur in Russia than in the West.