Developing World Unrest

I had been pretty disillusioned with the state of the world since the campaign for the US mid terms began in earnest. I’m feeling a bit better now. With America essentially sidelined from impactful international engagement it’s heartening to see others taking matters into their own hands. Maybe the new Libyan licence plates will say “give me liberty or give me death”.

A few people have suggested to me that America has got to be behind the unrest, or that they have some sort of hidden agenda because they are not coming to the aid of their despots. I think this is a questionable read of the situation. During the cold war the Americans supported these dictators with the aim of containing the Soviet Union. That time has passed, and I think finally the Americans are getting what they wanted all along.

In my view, the US interest in the middle east boils down to three issues: oil, basing, and Israel. What’s happening now may cause short term problems on one or all of those fronts, but even in the medium term Arab democracies should alleviate many of those problems in America’s eyes.

First off oil. The US has protected dictators with the goal of securing their oil supply. During the cold war, this may have been of great importance, but less so today. Since oil is traded on an open and quite liquid market who sells to whom is much less of an issue. Any supply diversion will result in more oil available from a different source, assuming consistent demand. Civil war might temporarily disrupt supply, but both sides have a strong interest in getting their hands on oil revenue so the actual disruption is not likely to be overly severe.

The next issue is basing. While during the cold war, the ability to station troops abroad ready to respond to an emerging threat may have been viewed as a necessity it is certainly less so today. The US has the capacity for rapid response short of an invasion even without fixed bases in theatre. Combined with America’s current fiscal situation the shuttering of regional bases might even be in the governments interest. It’s much easier to sell when you are being booted out, than if you can be portrayed as unilaterally reducing your commitment.

The final issue is Israel. It seems unlikely to me that any Arab country is itching to invade Israel. Repelling their aggression is one thing, but taking the fight to them is quite another. I find the threat of a traditional style war with Israel far fetched. The Israeli’s certainly have the capability to hold out until US help arrives, if not repel the invaders on their own.

Another argument that parallels the fear of an invasion of Israel I frequently here is that the new governments may be more friendly to extremists or terrorists who aim to do America harm. This is possible, but safe havens already exist. If there was a motivated Egyptian who wanted to commit terrorism against the US it seems likely that he could have made it to somewhere where he could have made that happen. Travel to Pakistan is relatively cheap and reliable. I don’t know that the difference between having to travel to Cairo instead of all the way to the North West Frontier Province would cause a marked uptake in terrorism.

In addition, even if a radical government were to come to power the day to day struggles of having to provide for the electorate is likely to trump a great deal of the desire to cause trouble abroad. If the US embraces the new governments with an open hand, they will lose a convenient scapegoat for their national problems. If citizens have an outlet for their anger which is not violence, and the government has priorities larger than fermenting unrest, the situation seems to improve for all involved.

Now the US is in a situation where they can sever relationships with dubious leaders while having a replacement government in waiting that will have at least some legitimacy with citizens as a whole. The entire process aligns with America’s interests in the region and at home, and as such should be embraced with open arms and as much support as is asked for.